Asean Summit, Malaysia on Nov 21, 1015

Asean Summit, Malaysia  on Nov 21, 1015
Asean Establishes Landmark Economic and Security Bloc
"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) - Text version)

“….. Here is the prediction: China will turn North Korea loose soon. The alliance will dissolve, or become stale. There will be political upheaval in China. Not a coup and not a revolution. Within the inner circles of that which you call Chinese politics, there will be a re-evaluation of goals and monetary policy. Eventually, you will see a break with North Korea, allowing still another dictator to fall and unification to occur with the south. ….”

“ … Here is another one. A change in what Human nature will allow for government. "Careful, Kryon, don't talk about politics. You'll get in trouble." I won't get in trouble. I'm going to tell you to watch for leadership that cares about you. "You mean politics is going to change?" It already has. It's beginning. Watch for it. You're going to see a total phase-out of old energy dictatorships eventually. The potential is that you're going to see that before 2013.

They're going to fall over, you know, because the energy of the population will not sustain an old energy leader ..."
"Update on Current Events" – Jul 23, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: The Humanization of God, Gaia, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Benevolent Design, Financial Institutes (Recession, System to Change ...), Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Nuclear Power Revealed, Geothermal Power, Hydro Power, Drinking Water from Seawater, No need for Oil as Much, Middle East in Peace, Persia/Iran Uprising, Muhammad, Israel, DNA, Two Dictators to fall soon, Africa, China, (Old) Souls, Species to go, Whales to Humans, Global Unity,..... etc.)
(Subjects: Who/What is Kryon ?, Egypt Uprising, Iran/Persia Uprising, Peace in Middle East without Israel actively involved, Muhammad, "Conceptual" Youth Revolution, "Conceptual" Managed Business, Internet, Social Media, News Media, Google, Bankers, Global Unity,..... etc.)









North Korean defector criticises China in rare Beijing talk

North Korean defector criticises China in rare Beijing talk
North Korean defector and activist Hyeonseo Lee, who lives in South Korea, poses as she presents her book 'The Girl with Seven Names: A North Korean Defector’s Story' in Beijing on March 26, 2016 (AFP Photo/Fred Dufour)

US under fire in global press freedom report

"The Recalibration of Awareness – Apr 20/21, 2012 (Kryon channeled by Lee Carroll) (Subjects: Old Energy, Recalibration Lectures, God / Creator, Religions/Spiritual systems (Catholic Church, Priests/Nun’s, Worship, John Paul Pope, Women in the Church otherwise church will go, Current Pope won’t do it), Middle East, Jews, Governments will change (Internet, Media, Democracies, Dictators, North Korea, Nations voted at once), Integrity (Businesses, Tobacco Companies, Bankers/ Financial Institutes, Pharmaceutical company to collapse), Illuminati (Started in Greece, with Shipping, Financial markets, Stock markets, Pharmaceutical money (fund to build Africa, to develop)), Shift of Human Consciousness, (Old) Souls, Women, Masters to/already come back, Global Unity.... etc.) - (Text version)

… The Shift in Human Nature

You're starting to see integrity change. Awareness recalibrates integrity, and the Human Being who would sit there and take advantage of another Human Being in an old energy would never do it in a new energy. The reason? It will become intuitive, so this is a shift in Human Nature as well, for in the past you have assumed that people take advantage of people first and integrity comes later. That's just ordinary Human nature.

In the past, Human nature expressed within governments worked like this: If you were stronger than the other one, you simply conquered them. If you were strong, it was an invitation to conquer. If you were weak, it was an invitation to be conquered. No one even thought about it. It was the way of things. The bigger you could have your armies, the better they would do when you sent them out to conquer. That's not how you think today. Did you notice?

Any country that thinks this way today will not survive, for humanity has discovered that the world goes far better by putting things together instead of tearing them apart. The new energy puts the weak and strong together in ways that make sense and that have integrity. Take a look at what happened to some of the businesses in this great land (USA). Up to 30 years ago, when you started realizing some of them didn't have integrity, you eliminated them. What happened to the tobacco companies when you realized they were knowingly addicting your children? Today, they still sell their products to less-aware countries, but that will also change.

What did you do a few years ago when you realized that your bankers were actually selling you homes that they knew you couldn't pay for later? They were walking away, smiling greedily, not thinking about the heartbreak that was to follow when a life's dream would be lost. Dear American, you are in a recession. However, this is like when you prune a tree and cut back the branches. When the tree grows back, you've got control and the branches will grow bigger and stronger than they were before, without the greed factor. Then, if you don't like the way it grows back, you'll prune it again! I tell you this because awareness is now in control of big money. It's right before your eyes, what you're doing. But fear often rules. …

Children Day

Children Day

Search This Blog

Thursday, March 25, 2010

India, China and Asean Economic Growth

Jakarta Globe, Tai Hui, March 25, 2010

China is Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner, but now it has some competition. In 2009, India ran a larger trade deficit with Asean-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) than China, despite the fact that China’s total trade with the grouping was almost fives times India’s.

As result of the significant narrowing of China’s trade deficit with Asean-6 in recent years, its direct contribution to Asean growth has diminished. A narrowing deficit reflects an increase in Chinese-made manufactured products entering Asean markets, as well as China’s weakening demand for Asean-made components of manufactured products. Lower commodity prices in late 2008 and 2009 may offer a partial explanation (commodities are an important source of Chinese demand for the region’s exports), but we do not see this as a satisfactory explanation.

In India’s case, faster economic growth in recent quarters and demand for raw materials have led to a considerable increase in imports from Asean. Given India’s lack of natural resources, and the fact that its manufacturing sector will take years to develop, India may well replace China as a key source of export growth for Asean countries.

In 2004 and 2005, China ran a $21 billion deficit with the region. China’s rising net imports from Asean-6 between 2000 and 2006 mirrored its growing trade surplus with the United States and Europe — China served as a manufacturing hub, gathering components from within the region for final assembly before shipping finished goods to the United States and Europe. Trade between China and Asean-6 rose from $38 billion in 2000 to a peak of $227 billion in 2008, before dropping to $207 billion amid the collapse in commodity prices in 2008-09 and weaker global growth. This represented a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.4 percent between 2000 and 2009.

China’s trade deficit with Asean-6 narrowed significantly after 2006. Between 2006 and 2009, China’s imports from the region expanded at a CAGR of 5.7 percent, while its exports to the region grew by 14.1 percent. While both rates slowed from the preceding years, the moderation in imports was more substantial. Vietnam has snapped up Chinese products faster than the rest of the region, with its share of total Asean imports from China rising to 15.9 percent in 2009 from 10 percent in 2004. The Philippines and Thailand, on the other hand, have scaled back their purchases of Chinese products.

In terms of Asean-6 exports to China, Thailand and Malaysia outperformed at the expense of Singapore and the Philippines. The strength of Thai and Malaysian exports is perhaps surprising, given that these two economies’ export structures share the greatest similarity with China’s. We believe strong commodity prices were behind the gains, as commodity producer Indonesia also saw its share of Asean-6 exports to China rise during the period. Nonetheless, the slowdown in Asean-6 export growth to China relative to imports from China is consistent with anecdotal evidence that China is becoming less dependent on imported components as it expands its range of manufactured products.

Of the Asean-6 economies, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam are already importing more from China than they are exporting to the country. While China runs a trade deficit with the Philippines, it is narrowing quickly. Thailand and Malaysia have been able to maintain their trade surpluses with China, but the concern is that tariff reductions as a result of the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement may tip the balance further, accelerating China’s exports of highly competitive manufactured products to Asean.

Until 2006, India’s trade balance with Asean-6 hovered around zero. This was partly because India’s total trade with Asean-6 was very limited, at just $6.7 billion in 2000. The pace of growth in the value of Asean’s exports to India has picked up considerably since 2003 with exports reaching $43.7 billion by 2009.

As trade between India and Asean-6 has expanded, India has emerged as a net importer from the region. Unlike in the case of China, this is not a result of the regionalization of the supply chain, but rather reflects India’s demand for natural resources. Some 87 percent of India’s imports from Asean-6 in 2009 came from Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Malaysian and Indonesian exports to India largely comprise commodities and raw materials. Singapore is India’s key export market in the region, absorbing 45 percent of Indian exports to Asean-6. Rather than reflecting Singapore’s underlying demand for Indian products, we believe this is more a function of Singapore’s role as a regional trading hub.

India runs trade deficits with Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, and we expect these deficits to widen. In fact, Indonesia and Thailand account for most of Asean-6’s trade surplus with India. Meanwhile, India is a net exporter to Vietnam and the Philippines. Its trade balance with Singapore is more volatile, but it has been a net exporter to the city-state for five of the past six years.

Because India runs a larger trade deficit with Asean-6 than China, it actually made a greater contribution to Asean growth in 2009 via trade in goods. Hence, on a net basis, Asean-6 is selling more to India than to China. This is not to dismiss China’s importance — after all, its trade with Asean-6 is still five times larger than India-Asean-6 trade. Instead, it highlights India’s growing importance as a driver of growth in emerging markets.

While financial markets in the emerging world react primarily to China’s economic data, India’s economic performance will play an increasingly important role as Asean countries seek to diversify their growth drivers. While manufacturers in Thailand and Malaysia are worried about the competitive threat of China’s exports, South Asia may offer new opportunities as India seeks to develop its manufacturing industries.

Tai Hui is r egional head of research for Southeast Asia at Standard Chartered Bank.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.