SE Asia's political clout grows with the rise of China and India

Lilian Budianto, The Jakarta Post, Bangkok, S'pore | Tue, 02/24/2009 1:02 PM  

Southeast Asia's political leverage on the global stage is on the rise thanks to its ability to keep the big powers' interests in the region in balance, but officials and experts warn of greater challenges in the future amid the current global woes. 

Southeast Asia has played a pivotal role in creating regional political stability in Asia amid the rise of China and India in the continent that has seen economic domination by Japan for decades. 

ASEAN leaders have managed to bring Japan, China and South Korea under one umbrella - the ASEAN +3, after decades of prolonged hostility among the three. 

India, Australia and New Zealand later joined the ASEAN +3 to form the East Asian Summit. 

With its success in balancing between Japan, China, South Korea and India, ASEAN now has to defend its leverage on the global stage and prove its ability to manage the imminent delivery of a new US political and economic agenda for the bloc. 

ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said Washington was now taking ASEAN seriously after it had taken a back seat to more pressing issues in other regions. The United States became the first country in the world to appoint an ambassador to ASEAN in a surprise move many believed was designed to step up its ties with the region, which has become increasingly influenced by China. 

The recent visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to East Asia and Indonesia has also hinted that Asia is high on Washington's agenda as it tries to cope with domestic economic turmoil and declining international influence. 

"Eleven countries have appointed ambassadors to ASEAN, beginning with the US," Surin said recently. "That was during the time when the US was perceived to not be paying too much attention to ASEAN, as the US secretary of State missed the opportunity to meet with our foreign ministers at our annual meetings in July many times for many reasons, for preoccupation with other regional issues." 

Despite ASEAN's success in avoiding tilting toward any one major power, the threat of ASEAN becoming the ground for a "proxy war" could be imminent, as some member states have actually moved closer toward certain major powers. 

Myanmar has developed strong trade ties with China and India amid economic sanctions from the West; countries along the Mekong River, including Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos have seen heavy investments from Chinese companies, while Thailand and the Philippines have leaned more toward the United States with their close defense ties. 

"We are aware of such a possibility of a contest of influence *in our region* and we have to strike the right balance and use it for own benefit," an official at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta said recently. 

The official, who preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the issue, said ASEAN did not want to see the US check with China or China check with India under the same forum. 

Many believe that Washington will join the East Asian Summit to exert more influence in the region by signing the prerequisite Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), which is now under review by the government. The EAS is among a number of forums in Asia where the US has been left out, allowing China to be the single major power. 

US Ambassador to ASEAN Scot A. Marciel said recently during a teleconference interview in Bangkok that the United States did not feel threatened by China's ties with ASEAN as "there is plenty of room to cooperate with each other". 

"We've got lots of common interests although there can be differences in views and certainly we might not have same view on the situation in Burma *Myanmar*. But we see this area is not a zero sum game between the US and China at all." 

He said the US interests in the region were motivated by a desire to see it become "increasingly prosperous and stable and open to engage in international issues". 

"China extended its relations with the region and we do not have a problem with that. We respect countries within the region who want to have good relations with China as well as Japan and the US. We prefer to say that there are areas we can work together rather than rivals to each other. This is not a game in which a loss for China is a gain for the US." 

Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Diplomacy at the National University of Singapore, said last week that the threat of geopolitical tension would always be present as at some point China knew that the US might get worried with the rise of Beijing and would try to contain it the same way it did with the Cold War. During the post-Cold War, Southeast Asia was divided between the non-communist ASEAN and communist Indochina, dominated by the pro-Soviet Vietnam from 1979 to 1989. 

"Geopolitical tension is always created between the world's greatest powers and the world greatest emerging powers," he said. 

"We should have seen rising tension between the United States and China but remarkably the exact opposite has happened in the last eight years. The new challenge now begins with the Obama administration and you have to wait and see what happens, but I am confident that China will manage it well," Mahbubani said.