Vietnam must find a balance between ties with China, US

Want China Times, Kang Lin 2015-04-11

China's premier Li Keqiang meets Nguyen Phu Trong, left, in Beijing, April 8.
(Photo/Xinhua)

General secretary Nguyen Phu Trong of the Communist Party of Vietnam paid a state visit to China April 7-10 at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Nguyen, now 71, last visited China in October 2011, nine months after he was elected as Vietnam's top party leader. His latest visit to China, made three and a half years from the last one, has raised wide concerns from various sectors.

Why did Nguyen pay a state visit to China at such a time? This question can be answered from both internal and external angles.　

Internally, as Vietnam's Communist Party is to reshuffle its leadership lineup at the 12th National Congress slated for January 2016, Nguyen's recent visit to China can be interpreted as seeking to "canvass" support for him from China. How Vietnam deals with China, now the country's most important neighbor, will significantly affect Vietnam's domestic political trends. This is why Nguyen chose to visit China before making a trip to the US, when he received invitations from both countries.

Externally, Sino-Vietnamese ties have been strained over the disputes concerning territorial claims on the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea in recent years. Last year, when China moved to deploy a deep-water oil rig, known as HD-981, to Triton Island, south of the Paracels, Vietnam staged a series of violent protests beyond China's expectations, forcing Chinese investors in Vietnam to withdraw their operations there and seriously undermining relationships between the two countries. Earlier this year, Le Luong Minh, the Vietnamese secretary general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) even issued a public statement blasting China's 9-dotted line territorial claim over the entire South China Sea as being against international law and affecting the development of ASEAN. This, again, drew strong dissatisfaction from China.

Nevertheless, it's not safe to say that Sino-Vietnamese ties will chill. While political exchanges between the two countries have waned over the said disputes, two-way trade has remained robust, with annual bilateral trade expected to break the US$60 billion level in 2015.

Given the "politically cold but economically hot" exchanges between the two nations, the real purpose behind Nguyen's latest visit to China is not very clear. Whether Nguen's belated visit is designed to improve the stalemate in political diplomacy and change the "politically cold, economically hot" scenario, or just to retain Chinese investments in Vietnam, or only to solicit political support from China to facilitate his moves in the upcoming 12th National Congress of Vietnam Communist Party, remains to be observed.

For Vietnam, preventing the South China Sea dispute from undermining its overall relationship with China, a super neighbor boasting a highly similar political system and special historical ties, is a vital task that may affect the survival of the Vietnam Communist Party. The country should weigh its options carefully: whether to choose the good neighbor China or the far-away friend, the US.

(Kang Lin is a researcher at National Institute of South China Sea Studies. Translated by Want China Times)