Narenda Modi: India's prime minister-in-waiting

Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2014

After eight months of intense campaigning, one of India's most polarizing politicians, the opposition BJP's Narendra Modi, is on course to become the country's next prime minister. DW takes a look at his political rise.

The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, won an absolute majority in India's parliamentary polls, according to early vote counts. If confirmed, this would be the first parliamentary majority by a single party in 30 years.

The poll which was staggered over six weeks, showed the BJP on track to win the 272 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, while the Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi dynasty, was headed for its worst-ever defeat.

The BJP's victory represents the pinnacle of Modi's political career thus far. It is the career of a man admired by many for his administrative ability and business-friendly policies, but regarded by his critics as an intolerant figure whose tenure as chief minister of Gujarat witnessed one of India's worst religious riots.

The 2002 riots

On February 27, 2002 a train carrying dozens of Hindu activists among others caught fire under mysterious circumstances in the western Indian state of Gujarat resulting in 58 deaths. The incident, coupled with reports that Muslim mobs were involved in the train burning, triggered one of the deadliest outbreaks of religious violence in India in recent history, leaving around 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus dead and several thousand injured.

Modi has been accused of abetting
the 2002 communal riots

The communal riots tarnished the image of Modi's who has been governing his native state of Gujarat since 2001. Born to lower middle-class parents, Modi pursued a Master's degree in political science and worked for many years as a propagandist for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a Hindu nationalist outfit, before entering the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the late 1980s.

After rising through the party ranks, Modi became the Chief Minister of Gujarat in October 2001, just months before the communal violence erupted. His administration has ever since been accused of abetting the 2002 riots and failing to take measures to protect minorities.

The allegations provided ammunition to Modi's opponents and various NGOs to brand him as "anti-Muslim" and a "Hindu nationalist," thus making him one of India's most controversial and divisive politicians. In 2012, Maya Kodnani, a former minister in Modi's cabinet was convicted for her role in the attacks and sentenced to 28 years in prison.

The Chief Minister, however, has always denied the allegations made against him. His supporters argue that he has been unfairly maligned and an investigation by an India's Supreme Court-appointed team cleared him of any wrongdoing in the riots, Milan Vaishnav, a South Asia expert at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told DW.

Yet this hasn't been enough to silence his critics, who continue to blame him for the deadly religious riots.

Good economics

Over the past decade, Modi's peculiar governing style has also prompted strong reactions. Dubbed "authoritarian" by his detractors, his supporters hail it as "decisive," crediting the controversial politician for making his state one of India's fastest-growing with double-digit growth rates over the past decade.

Gujarat's continued strong performance
 has helped boost Modi's image across
India

Jagdish Bhagwati, professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University, says the Chief Minister has presided over the state's impressive economic record. "Modi has attracted a great deal of investment to Gujarat, both domestic and foreign, because he has offered a corruption-free environment and is reputed to take quick decisions on granting licenses to invest and manufacture, whereas in almost every other Indian State the delays are pathetic," the economist told DW.

Indeed, Gujarat received around 8.8 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI) between 2000 and 2013, amounting to nearly 4 percent of India's total FDI during this period, according to government data.

Critics argue that economic growth in Gujarat has not transformed into human and social development as it has focused solely on physical infrastructure and not on education and health. But economist Bhagwati says that Modi's record on poverty reduction and on social indicators like literacy and electrification of villages is remarkable.

In 2011-12, the state's GDP grew at 8.5 percent, while India's economy expanded between 5-6 percent. The state's continued strong performance has helped boost the politician's image across the country.

A popular leader

To Modi's advantage, a slew of high-profile corruption scandals have contributed to the growing disenchantment of the public with the ruling Congress Party-led coalition government.

Dr. S. Chandrasekharan, director of the India-based think tank South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG), says that Modi is popular with segments of Indian population such as the middle classes, traders and students among others.

Furthermore, he has been endorsed by many industrialists for the post of prime minister. Analyst Vaishnav explains business leaders hope that Modi will be able to scale up the pro-growth and investment policies he championed in Gujarat to the all-India level and plug the leadership vacuum they believe the nation has suffered over the past several years."

Against this backdrop, Modi was named last September the BJP's prime ministerial candidate in the April-May general elections.

Foreign relations

In the aftermath of the 2002 riots, many countries in the West such as Germany, the UK, and the US cut ties with Modi and barred him from setting foot on their territory citing his role in the communal violence. The US Congress even passed a resolution in 2005 condemning him for promoting Nazi ideology and "racial hatred."

Modi's visa to the US was revoked in
the aftermath of the communal violence

The situation changed in recent years, however, with several countries ending their boycott of the BJP leader and deciding to initiate government-level discussions. But the United States, which revoked Modi's visa in 2005, is yet to end its travel restrictions, although Washington recently initiated diplomatic contact with the Indian leader, with the former US Ambassador Nancy Powell meeting Modi.

Obama administration has also declared that it would be willing to work with Modi, should the BJP win the vote. "We will work with the leader of the world's largest democracy. There is no question about that."

Apart from occasional references, Modi has so far not revealed much about his intentions on the foreign policy front. However, it will not be long before his way of dealing with issues, particularly concerning the relations with Pakistan and China, will be known.

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"Recalibration of Free Choice"–  Mar 3, 2012 (Kryon Channelling by Lee Carroll) - (Subjects: (Old) Souls, Midpoint on 21-12-2012, Shift of Human Consciousness, Black & White vs. Color, 1 - Spirituality (Religions) shifting, Loose a Pope “soon”, 2 - Humans will change react to drama, 3 - Civilizations/Population on Earth,  4 - Alternate energy sources (Geothermal, Tidal (Paddle wheels), Wind), 5 – Financials Institutes/concepts will change (Integrity – Ethical) , 6 - News/Media/TV to change, 7 – Big Pharmaceutical company will collapse “soon”, (Keep people sick), (Integrity – Ethical)  8 – Wars will be over on Earth, Global Unity, … etc.) - (Text version)

“…5 - Integrity That May Surprise…

Number five: There will be those who think it impossible to have a search for integrity and fairness in all things. In other words, Human Beings will not simply go with what they are told is the status quo. They will look at it and they will say, "Well, I think it could be better. I'm going to look around for something that has more integrity and fairness." Yes, there will be those who tell you, "Look, the institutions hold all the cards and you have to do it their way. If you want health insurance or you want loans from the banks for your home, you better do it their way." I have news for you. Even this is going to change.

"What are you going to do?" the Human asks. "They hold all the power!" In the past, there was nothing you could do. Now I'll tell you what the potentials are. You're going to pull out the puzzle and look past the walls of the maze. You're going to say, "Well, then I'll start my own institution." And some will. The new institutions, based on integrity, will sweep right past an old energy. In other words, there will be those who are young today who are going to start a new way of banking, a new way of health care, and a new way of insurance. And when you see these plans, you'll say, "Why didn't we think of that?"

Have you seen innovation and invention in the past decade that required thinking out of the box of an old reality? Indeed, you have. I can't tell you what's coming, because you haven't thought of it yet! But the potentials of it are looming large. Let me give you an example, Let us say that 20 years ago, you predicted that there would be something called the Internet on a device you don't really have yet using technology that you can't imagine. You will have full libraries, buildings filled with books, in your hand - a worldwide encyclopedia of everything knowable, with the ability to look it up instantly! Not only that, but that look-up service isn't going to cost a penny! You can call friends and see them on a video screen, and it won't cost a penny! No matter how long you use this service and to what depth you use it, the service itself will be free.

Now, anyone listening to you back then would perhaps have said, "Even if we can believe the technological part, which we think is impossible, everything costs something. There has to be a charge for it! Otherwise, how would they stay in business?" The answer is this: With new invention comes new paradigms of business. You don't know what you don't know, so don't decide in advance what you think is coming based on an old energy world.

The Unthinkable… Politics, A Review

Humans will begin to search for integrity and fairness and it's going to happen in the places you never expect. I said this last week, so this is a review. There'll come a time when you will demand this of your politics - fairness and integrity. So when the candidates start calling each other names, you will turn your back on them and they won't get any votes. They're going to get the point real fast, don't you think? How about that?

Let me give you another potential. This country that I sit in right now [USA] will set the mold for that particular attribute. I have no clock. Watch for the youngsters to set this in motion, and they will, for they are the voters of tomorrow and they do not want the energy of today. To some of them, it's so abominable they won't even register to vote in this energy. You're going to see this soon. That was number five.. ..."