Beijing eyes China-India-Russia alliance: Duowei

Want China Times, Staff Report 2013-10-23

Xi Jinping greets Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev in Beijing on Oct. 22,
2013. (Photo/Xinhua)

China's decision to invite both Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh and Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev to Beijing on Tuesday has political strategists wondering if Chinese president Xi Jinping is trying to develop a new China-India-Russia alliance, reports Duowei News, an outlet run by overseas Chinese.

During the Oct. 22 visit, Medvedev signed an US$85 billion deal for Russia to supply 10 million tonnes of oil to China every year for the next 10 years, while Singh is believed to be attempting to foster stronger trade relations between India and China while resolving a border dispute.

The high-profile diplomatic visits made by Xi and Premier Li Keqiang have been the center of focus since the duo ascended to their respective positions in March, with many observers suggesting that China's new generation of leaders is eager to strengthen regional ties. Li visited India and Pakistan in May, while Xi visited four central Asian nations last month. Xi and Li also each made separate trips to five Southeast Asian nations earlier this month around the time of the APEC summit in Bali.

Former Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov first came up with the idea of a trilateral alliance between Russia, China and India back in the 1990s, with a major breakthrough occurring in July 2006 at the G8 summit in St Petersberg when President Vladimir Putin organized a meeting between the leaders of the three countries at the time.

Analysts suggest that the recent Beijing encounter "manufactured" by Xi and Li is a sign that Beijing remains very interested in creating a three-way alliance with Russia and India to counter old views of Russia and China fighting over closer relations with India.

However, Zhou Fangyin, a global strategist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Duowei that the chances of a China-Russia-India alliance are close to zero. The timing for China to form alliances is not yet right, Zhou said, adding that the areas of cooperation right now are extremely limited.

Another obstacle to an alliance involving India is that China would be seen as a taking sides with India against long-standing ally Pakistan, with whom the country signed a friendship, cooperation and good-neighborly relations treaty in 2005. Any alliance with India would therefore have to wait until the treaty expires in 2015.

Zhou added China's power is likely to continue to rise in the next five to 10 years while US power will continue to decline, though this would not change the basic fact that America can still overwhelm China if necessary.

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