Sudden Reunification With the North Could Spell Trouble for South Korea

Jakarta Globe, Foster Klug, January 04, 2012

A couple viewing an art installation symbolizing wishes for the unification
of both Koreas at the Imjinkak pavilion in Paju, South Korea. (Reuters Photo)

Related articles

• South Korea Says ‘New Era’ Possible for Koreas
• N. Korea Prepares Huge Send-Off for Late Leader
• Kim Jong-il’s Son Strengthens Power
• N. Korea Warns Against Christmas Lights Near Border
• Under South Korean Security Law, Praising North Korea Is Illegal

Seoul. A single, reunified Korea has long been a cherished dream of people on both sides of the world’s most heavily fortified border. South Korea even has a Cabinet-level ministry preparing for the day.

And while Kim Jong-il’s death last month has raised those hopes higher among some in Seoul, few are eager to talk about the cold reality: Sudden reunification could be traumatic for both countries.

Any North Korean collapse and hurried reunification, analysts say, could spell the end of Pyongyang’s ruling class while flooding Seoul with refugees and causing huge financial burdens for South Koreans who have only recently gotten used to their country’s emergence as a rising Asian power.

Korea observers aren’t predicting such a collapse or the kind of “big bang” reunification that happened in Germany, which saw the overnight fall of the communist side and its swift absorption into its Western neighbor. The new North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il’s son Kim Jong-un, is fast consolidating power, winning key backing from the government and military.

Still, the extraordinary changes in North Korea following the Dec. 17 death of the man whose iron rule lasted 17 years have stirred up dreams of a single Korea among some in the South.

The Swiss-educated Kim Jong-un “is less allergic than his father was to introducing new ideas from the world. That will help ease isolation and open room for reunification,” said Bae Sang-il, a 36-year-old office worker.

Many South Koreans support the idea of eventual reunification, but they seem more wary of the huge costs that will come with it.

A poll in South Korea late last year, before Kim’s death, showed more than half of those interviewed believed they would eventually be better off after reunification, although more than two-thirds said the costs were bigger than the benefits.

Both countries talk about reunification, but they have different notions of what it would be.

North Korea sees it as a two-state federation, with each state abiding by its own rules and regulations but as one Korea. South Korea and its US ally would likely balk at anything other than a Korea that is a liberal democracy, or at least moving in that direction.

From Seoul’s point of view, slow and steady are crucial for success. A sudden reunification would be a serious blow for South Korea’s vibrant economy and well-ordered society.

South Korea, whose constitution enshrines the goal of reunification, will be much better off, analysts say, if it can gradually build up a North Korean economy that Seoul estimates is about 40 times smaller than its own.

Officials in Seoul will face a monumental set of problems, whatever happens. They will likely have to open up the North’s economy to trade and investment, quickly raise the living standards of millions, control the flow of North Koreans into the South and retrain North Korean bureaucrats so they can help run the country under new policies.

A South Korean institute said recently that the cost could be up to $240 billion after a year and up to $2.4 trillion after a decade.

The German model is often raised, but there are key differences. West Germany largely footed the bill for reunification after the collapse of communism, bringing the overall infrastructure of the former East Germany up to a standard similar to the West.

North Korea’s population, however, is about half the size of the South’s, while East Germany’s population was only a quarter of the West’s, according to Erik Lueth, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. East Germany, he points out, was one of the wealthiest of the Soviet affiliated states; North Korea is much poorer than the South.

Also, East Germany’s ruling elite, chafing under the Soviet yoke, was not averse to the idea of uniting with West Germany and accepting its capitalist system. North Korean leaders, analysts say, won’t quickly accept a system that would take away their power.

“Reunification would be terrible for North Korea’s elite and wonderful for the North Korean people, although there would be a traumatic period of adjustment,” said Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think tank. “For the top handful of North Korean leaders, reunification under Seoul would mean jail or worse.”

History provides some potential clues about North Korea’s future. Despite famine and international isolation, North Korea survived the 1994 death of Kim Il-sung, the North’s founder and father of Kim Jong-il.

“Now, despite a food shortage and economic hardships, the regime will probably be able to avoid a worst-case scenario due to unity among its top officials and assistance from China,” former South Korean Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo wrote recently in the Chosun Ilbo.

So reunification, at least for the time being, seems a distant dream. And that may be a good thing for Seoul.

Associated Press

Related Articles:

"A Summary" – Apr 2, 2011 (Kryon channelled by Lee Caroll) (Subjects: Religion, Shift of Human Consciousness, 2012, Intelligent/Benevolent Design, EU, South America, 5 Currencies, Water Cycle (Heat up, Mini Ice Ace, Oceans, Fish, Earthquakes ..), Middle East, Internet, Israel, Dictators, Palestine, US, Japan (Quake/Tsunami Disasters , People, Society ...), Nuclear Power Revealed, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power, Moon, Financial Institutes (Recession, Realign integrity values ..) , China, North Korea, Global Unity,..... etc.) - (Text version)

“…..   Here is the prediction: China will turn North Korea loose soon. The alliance will dissolve, or become stale. There will be political upheaval in China. Not a coup and not a revolution. Within the inner circles of that which you call Chinese politics, there will be a re-evaluation of goals and monetary policy. Eventually, you will see a break with North Korea, allowing still another dictator to fall and unification to occur with the south. ….”