Two North Korean men make a blackmarket transaction. (AFP Photo)
Tokyo. There is mounting evidence that Kim Jong-il is losing the propaganda war inside North Korea, with more than half the population now listening to foreign news, grass-roots cynicism undercutting state myths and discontent building even among the elite.
A survey of refugees has found “everyday forms of resistance” are taking root as large swaths of the population believe pervasive corruption, rising inequity and chronic food shortages are the fault of the government in Pyongyang and not of the United States, South Korea or other foreign forces. The report is by the East-West Center, a research group established by the US Congress.
It comes amid unconfirmed reports from inside North Korea of a rising number of starvation deaths caused by a bad harvest and bungled currency reform that disrupted food markets, caused runaway inflation and triggered widespread unrest.
The number of starvation deaths in South Pyongan province, in the center of the country, is in the thousands since January, according to Good Friends, a Seoul relief group with informants inside North Korea.
It said bodies of malnourished elderly people were being found in the streets of the capital, and quoted unnamed party officials as saying starvation in some areas this winter has risen to levels unseen since the 1990s, when famine killed as many as 1 million North Koreans.
This mix of deadly food shortages, bureaucratic bumbling and rising cynicism presents a potentially destabilizing threat to Kim’s government. It comes at a delicate time, when the ailing 68-year-old leader has launched a secretive process to hand power over to his untested son, Kim Jong-eun, 27.
“Once a government has so badly damaged trust, it may be very difficult, if not impossible, to restore its credibility,” said Marcus Noland, co-author of “Political Attitudes under Repression,” the new report on a survey of North Korean refugees.
Although Kim’s government appears to be losing the hearts and minds of North Koreans, there is little or no indication organized opposition has emerged inside the country, Noland said.
However, signals of internal stress are growing, according to another new report on conditions inside North Korea. The International Crisis Group, an independent group that advises many Western governments and UN agencies, said pressure from the deteriorating food supply and “disastrous” currency reform “could have unanticipated consequences for regional international security. A sudden split in the leadership, although unlikely, is not out of the question.”
The results in the East-West Center’s report are based on a November 2008 survey of 300 North Korean refugees living in South Korea. The refugees in the survey, parts of which were first publicized last year, include new arrivals as well as those who fled the country during the height of the 1990s famine.
More than half of the refugees who have fled North Korea since 2006 said they listened or watched foreign news reports regularly. North Korea outlaws radios and TVs that can be tuned to foreign stations, but consumer electronics have flooded into the country from China.
“Not only is foreign media becoming more widely available, inhibitions on its consumption are declining as well,” the report said, referring to broadcasts from South Korea, China and the United States. “The availability of alternative sources of information undermines the heroic image of a workers’ paradise and threatens to unleash the information cascade that can be so destabilizing to authoritarian rule.”
The Washington Post
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